LTP News Sharing:
Black voters are trending away from President Joe Biden and Democrats, frustrated that Democrats are not addressing kitchen table issues as they grab for extreme matters to woo leftists, according to a broad poll of 39 battleground congressional districts.
In the new survey from Cygnal, conducted in 20 states, Democrats are struggling to maintain their edge with black and women voters, “two traditionally reliable Democrat voting blocs.”
Vice President of Polling Brock McCleary told Secrets on Wednesday morning, “Democrats are in trouble with black voters, as the number of those saying the Democrat Party is more extreme than the Republican Party has increased by 20% since March. Biden is similarly in trouble, with over a third having an unfavorable view of the president, and it’s largely because they’re most concerned with the cost of living and not ideological issues like climate change and election integrity that his administration has chosen to prioritize.”
For some black and women voters upset with Biden, the choice is former President Donald Trump.
“Among key voter groups like college-educated women, married women, and black voters, Trump’s approval has also jumped 5%,” McCleary’s analysis said.
The survey shared with Secrets is the latest to show trouble spots for Biden as he tries to find topics he can seize on to beat Trump. He has been in trouble over inflation and flip-flopping moves in the Israel-Hamas war.
The new survey showed voters are focused on both, and they also want something done about the open border between Mexico and the United States.
Cygnal’s survey of 1,500 likely general election voters revealed one possible reason why voters continue to give Trump a slight edge in general election matchups four years after Biden beat the Republican.
In a word, it’s “nostalgia,” pollster McCleary said.
“Nostalgia for Trump’s first term continues to gain steam. Battleground voters now give Trump positive job approval for his four years in the White House while disapproval of Biden remains high,” he said.
For example, while he found the head-to-head in the 2024 rematch was Trump over Biden, 47% to 45%, Trump’s approval in the eyes of likely voters has increased to 48% to Biden’s 37%, a huge gap that would likely signal Biden’s defeat in a typical election. Trump’s approval has increased by 3 points since January despite his legal troubles.
The extremism voters see in Biden’s anti-Israel policies and push to change Title IX rules to let men compete in women’s sports is also hurting him among traditional Democratic groups.
For example, the survey found little support for the most extreme pro-Palestinian protesters who are spouting antisemitism. And 61% reject Title IX changes.
McCleary told us the matters are affecting support for the Democrats.
“It’s troubling that a third of Democrats used the word ‘justified’ to describe their view of the pro-Palestinian protests while less than half that amount would describe them as offensive. But it’s clear those Democrats are ideological outliers when over 80% oppose the protests outright and support the police clearing out their encampments,” he said.
And on Title IX, McCleary added, “Biden continues to needlessly alienate voters, especially with key groups like parents. His push for new Title IX rules is the latest example. Over 60% of parents oppose requiring universities to give biological males who identify as female the same rights and protections as biological females.”
