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Stormy Petrel, the dark harbinger. (Credit: Ward Clark via AI – Night Cafe Creator)


Like so many of us, I watched the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last night. Like so many of us, I was anticipating former President Donald Trump’s speech, given the intelligence we had received that, following the assassination attempt, he would be dramatically changing the tone of that speech. And, of course, we were all waiting to see his reaction to this:


And like so many of us, I realized that what I saw was remarkable. After what was one of the best-run, best-organized, most effective major party political conventions I’ve seen in over 30 years, we saw the final presentation: Trump 2.0, a changed man, calm, reflective, bringing a message of unity and purpose, talking not about himself but about America. His new, calmer demeanor this morning after the event is even impressing partisan Democrats. On Fox News, Democrat opinion writer Doug Schoen wrote:

Donald Trump may well have sealed the outcome of the 2024 election with a performance on Thursday night in Milwaukee that has largely been unmatched in recent American political history.

The former president eschewed the polarization and division that has marked much of his rhetoric in the past. In his speech officially accepting the Republican Party’s nomination there were only a couple of references to the 2020 election. Trump was able to hit on key messages when speaking about topics like inflation, and especially immigration, in ways that were compelling and arguably responsive to the fundamental concerns of Americans.

I say this not to engage in hyperbole, as I have never been – and am not now – a Trump supporter. But as a political analyst, you have to acknowledge reality. And the reality of this speech was simple: Trump spoke of the American Dream, he spoke of bringing people together, he spoke of helping African-Americans, Hispanics and those who have been left behind. 

In short, Trump did something he has virtually never done before: speak to all the American people. As he said, he wanted to speak not to 50 percent but to 100 percent of the American people.

 Veteran commentator Carl Cannon is now referring to Donald Trump as the new Comeback Kid.

“Go and watch the video of a would-be assassin coming a quarter of an inch from taking his life,” vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance told the hushed convention delegates on Wednesday. “When Donald J. Trump rose to his feet in that Pennsylvania field, all of America stood up with him. Donald Trump represents America’s last best hope to restore what – if lost – may never be found again.”

Even CNN’s Van Jones was impressed, as my colleague Bob Hoge wrote on Friday after the convention closed.

The Democrats’ August convention is likely to look very, very different. First, we have little idea who will emerge from that convention as the Democratic candidate, and honestly, they have almost no good options. Joe Biden’s deterioration — his sudden fits of anger, his hissing whispers, his inability to complete sentences — compares much too vividly with Thursday evenings’ calm, reasoned, humble, and reflective Trump 2.0.

And that’s what is worrisome.

Desperate people can be dangerous. The Democrats’ options at their convention are these:

  • Leave befuddled old Joe Biden in place, take the inevitable L, and concentrate on building a team for the next cycle.
  • Convince Joe to leave (if he has not already done so) and let Kamala Harris stand in as the candidate.
  • Have an open convention, with several candidates vying for the chance to be shellacked by Trump 2.0.

There doesn’t appear to be any plausible scenario that makes a Democrat the 47th President of the United States. Keeping old Joe practically guarantees the loss. Keeping Kamala in place, likewise; she is already in over her head and is in no way qualified for the promotion. An open convention, no matter who is nominated, will leave the Democratic Party hopelessly shattered, to the point where they may be a decade rebuilding. The interesting question here is how the various Democrat constituencies will react to this — and to Donald Trump winning the election. Again, there are too many bad outcomes.

At this point, it’s looking like Donald Trump has a lock on the 2024 election. So why am I not more optimistic?

Because desperate people can be dangerous, and when Donald Trump takes the 2024 election, many of the Democrats’ special interest groups will be desperate. I’m not saying they will have reason to be; these are people who tend to invent things to be outraged about.

If we cast our optics back to 1968, to the Democrats’ national convention in that year, coincidentally also in Chicago, we can see what may be a template for this year’s Democrat convention. If we look to the summer of 2020, we may well see a template for what might happen after this 2024 election and the subsequent inauguration.

This is less certain, though, to my thinking, than it was only a month ago, and that is because of what happened at the GOP convention: There were protestors, there were marchers, but there was no mass violence, no arson, no vandalism. That’s a hopeful sign.

But there was that nut who took a shot at a former President of the United States.

Since the late ’70s, I’ve been watching politics like a lot of guys watch sportsball. I remember Nixon being forced out of office. I remember the various Clinton scandals. I remember Barack Obama’s speaking at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, after which the common presumption was that he was an up-and-comer. And I have now seen an even more earth-shaking event in the 2024 Republican convention and the rise of Trump 2.0.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is on the verge of an internal civil war.

As I’ve been saying, we are in unknown territory. I’m cautiously optimistic that the peaceful conducting and closing of the Republican convention will prove prophetic for the Democrat convention, for the election, and the inauguration. 

But as my Old Man was fond of saying, it would be advisable to hope for the best but plan for the worst.