LTP News Sharing:
Democrat
presidential candidate Kamala Harris is in serious trouble
according to the latest forecast from top pollster
Nate Silver. In what can only be described as a
crushing blow to the Vice President’s 2024 aspirations,
the numbers paint a bleak picture for her chances against
former President Donald Trump.
Silver’s
latest analysis gives Trump a 53.1% chance of victory,
compared to Harris’s 46.6%. But it’s the swing
states that are sounding the loudest alarms for the Harris
camp. Trump is leading in Pennsylvania, Nevada,
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—states that are
crucial for any Democrat hoping to secure the
presidency. Arizona, in particular, is a disaster
for Harris, with Trump holding a commanding 62-38% lead.
Georgia and North Carolina are no better, with Trump ahead
by double digits in both.
Harris
does manage to eke out a lead in Wisconsin and Michigan,
but it’s hardly the margin needed to offset Trump’s
dominance elsewhere. With the Polymarket odds
showing Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%, the election is
shaping up to be a nail-biter—but one where Trump seems to
have the upper hand.
If
these numbers hold, the road to the White House for Kamala
Harris looks more like a dead end. In her first sit-down
interview as the Democrat presidential nominee on
Thursday, Harris discussed a range of topics including her
economic plans, fracking, immigration, and the current
administration’s performance. During the interview, she
also addressed shifts in some of her policy stances.
However,
she struggled
to explain her flip-flopping positions
and relied on running mate Walz to cut in at times. Breitbart reported
on the ever-changing odds which now show Harris losing to
former President Trump.
The
vice president went from being the favorite to win
with odds of 10/11 (52.4 percent) on Thursday to tied
with Donald Trump on 19/20 (51.3 percent) each on
Friday morning, according to the Star Sports betting
company.
Over
the same period, Trump’s odds of victory in November
improved from 21/20 (48.8 percent) before the interview
to 20/21 (51.2 percent), according to U.K. based
bookmaker Betfair.
Thursday’s
interview was the national media’s first chance to see
Harris in an unscripted format taking basic questions
about her campaign and qualifications to succeed Joe
Biden. Reporters have tangled with her spokesman about why
she’s dodged the press after more than a month on the
campaign trail, and Thursday’s interview was the
culmination of weeks of promises that she would finally do
so. Horse traders, it seems, were not impressed.
“Vice
President Harris is now tied at 19/20 with Republican
candidate Donald Trump, drifting slightly from 10/11
yesterday. The Californian had been 5/6 in recent weeks
but she has failed to surge ahead of Trump in the market,”
Star Sports betting analyst William Kedjanyi told
Newsweek. “GOP supporters will hope Trump can now go on to
tip the balance in his favor, before November’s
presidential election.”
He
continued, “Before Kamala Harris’ sit-down interview with
CNN overnight, the Betfair Exchange market had more or
less been neck and neck. While the lead in the betting has
flip flopped throughout August, momentum is now with Trump
and he has become the odds-on favorite again after being
backed into 21/20.”
Allies
of Trump have continually cited the media’s inability to
estimate his levels of support among the electorate,
pointing to his upset 2016 win and concern by pollsters
that the industry has not solved its trouble identifying
MAGA supporters.
The path to 270 electoral votes
relies on a number of swing states that Trump narrowly
lost in 2020 including Georgia and Pennsylvania, but won
four years earlier. In those instances, even some
Democrats like Sen.
John Fetterman (D-PA) have predicted
that Trump will carry their state.
